Forecasting Assignment

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Forecasting Assignment
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University of Phoenix
Operations Management – MGT 554
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Forecasting Assignment
Forecasting assists managers (companies) to help predict future demand. Demand management is important because companies can increase value or productivity and reduce costs. Chase, Jacobs, & Aquilano (2005) state, “the purpose of demand management is to coordinate and control all sources of demand so the productive system can be used efficiently and the product delivered on time” (p. 512). When a manager is choosing a forecast method, the manager must analyze the cost of doing the forecast and the opportunity cost of using inaccurate data. In addition, Chase, et al. (2005) state “the manager must look at the following factors: (1) Time horizon to forecast, (2) Data availability, (3) Accuracy required, (4) Size of forecasting budget, and (5) Availability of qualified personnel ( p. 518). This paper will compare and contrast three forecasting methods (Delphi Method, Box Jenkins Technique, and Econometric Models) used by managers to help predict future demand as well as explain how the National Basketball Association (NBA) uses forecasting methods to forecast demand under conditions of uncertainty.
The Delphi method is a qualitative technique. Chase, et al. (2005) defines qualitative techniques as “subjective or judgmental and are based on estimates and opinions (p. 513). The Delphi method according to Chase et al., is when a group of experts responds to questionnaires. A moderator compiles results and formulates a new questionnaire that is submitted to the group. Thus, there is a learning process for the group as it receives new information and there is no influence of group pressure or dominating individuals (p. 514).
Singh (2005) states, “The Delphi technique is a method used to systematically combine expert knowledge and opinion…...

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